18 = 14 + 4
The Grand Cycle Equation
“If you sit back, look at the universe and say, what equation holds all the cards, that would be E = mc2. That's all I gotta say.”
That’s astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson on the world’s best-known equation.
E = mc2 was Albert Einstein’s stroke of genius.
It shows that mass and energy are related.
When you convert mass into energy, E = mc2 tells you how much energy you’ll get.
E = mc2 explained radioactivity.
It gave us the source of the Sun’s power.
It introduced us to the horror of nuclear weapons. And the hope of cheap, clean energy from nuclear fusion.
It even made space travel possible.
But here’s something few people realise...
E = mc2 is actually an explanation of time itself...
Using Einstein's basic equation led scientists to The Big Bang Theory.
We’re now pretty sure the universe began in a hot 'big bang' around 13.8 billion years ago.
More than that... thanks to E = mc2, we now have a rough idea what the universe will look like 13.8 billion years from now.
As Neil deGrasse Tyson continues:
“Our fundamental knowledge of the formation and evolution of the universe would be practically zero were it not for the existence and understanding of that equation.”
The true elegance of E = mc2 is this...
It links three distinct parts of nature — energy, the speed of light and mass — together into one universal law.
Now let me ask you this...
What if an equation explained the markets in the same way?
One that linked every component — stocks, property, bonds, commodities, interest rates, currencies and more — into ONE UNIVERSAL LAW?
- Seemingly random events in the financial world would start to make sense.
- You’d know not to panic when sizeable stock corrections occur like the 8% in 8 minutes post-Brexit FTSE bloodbath in June 2016.
- You’d know not to get suckered by sensational headlines and hysterical news anchors every time there’s a big market move.
- You’d be able to see an underlying fabric governing the direction and motion of prices.
- You’d see big crashes like the Global Financial Crisis coming, years before everyone else.
- And you’d be able to tailor your investment strategy accordingly.
Does such an equation exist?
One that, to use Neil deGrasse Tyson’s words, “holds all the cards” when it comes to the investment markets?
One man believes so.
Specifically: he’s discovered that history repeats in the markets, with just minor variations.
Those repetitions occur inside an overarching Grand Market Cycle.
And this cycle is explained by another single, elegant equation:
18 = 14 + 4
What do those numbers mean?
You’re about to find out. But why should you care?
Because, according to the man I’m going to introduce you to, 18 = 14 + 4 – like E = mc2 – has both explanatory and predictive power.
In his words:
“Once you understand this you’ll know where you are in a Grand Cycle of the markets...where you’re going...and what’s plotted for the months and years ahead.”
So what IS plotted for the future?
That’s what this special investigation is all about.
You’ll see how the recent ructions taking place across global markets fit PRECISELY into the equation I’m going to introduce you to.
Indeed – they were predicted.
2015, for instance, was marked PANIC on the Grand Cycle Timetable.
A fairly major retracement in the stock market was predicted.
The FTSE 100 shed -5%.
At the dawn of 2016, despite much pessimism in the media, the Grand Cycle Timetable said BUY STOCKS.
The man I’m about to introduce you to wrote “we suggest you do everything you can to make 2016 your year of increasing your earnings”.
That seemed counterintuitive at the time. But then, most Grand Cycle predictions do. At the time of writing (September 2016) it is correct AGAIN. The FTSE 100 Index is up 2.2% year-to-date.
But what happens next in The Grand Cycle; between now and the end of this decade?
And why will preparing for it be the single best investment move you could make?
Keep reading to find out...
You will see that the mainstream media’s been completely misreading the situation in the financial markets in the last 18 months. And that Brexit is mere ‘fluff’ within the wider context of the Grand Cycle.
You will also see that, if you are even remotely going to improve your wealth over the next few years, you absolutely MUST learn to do the opposite of the crowd. And you MUST understand the following equation:
18 = 14 + 4
I’ll explain what that equation is – and how it pinpoints market events in advance – in a second.
First, let’s just assume that I’m right about this.
What if you could forecast with precision every major turning point in the financial markets?
What if you could apply this kind of specific foreknowledge, not just to stocks... but to all asset markets...?
It’d make your financial life VASTLY easier, right?
Whether you’re an investor, a speculator, a trader, a retiree, or a property investor...
This is why you should read what follows very carefully...
What we’re about to examine is this:
What if there was an Almanac for the financial markets?
One so accurate, you could set your watch by it?
Never again would you have to worry about what will happen next year.
Never again would you be caught out in a down move on the stock market... in fact you’d be able to profit from them.
If you’re a rational person you’re probably sceptical about any kind of long-range market prediction.
Let alone one pinpointing specific dates.
If someone really did discover a universal law that helped them make such predictions... they’d be Time magazine’s Person of the Year, surely?
Well, I ask you to reserve judgement until you’ve seen some of the incredible things 18 = 14 + 4 has already predicted... in most cases years in advance.
As you’ll see, these forecasts are too numerous... and too accurate... to be the product of chance or fluke.
Secondly, there are good reasons you haven’t seen the equation 18 = 14 + 4 until today. As Pulitzer Prize winner Ada Louise Huxtable observed:
“...the institutions that teach elites to think about the modern world are unconcerned with teaching them to look at it.”
Einstein’s equation is the cosmic motor that drives the universe.
The man I’m about to introduce you to is convinced 18 = 14 + 4 drives every cycle in the financial world:
The real estate cycle, the commodities cycle, the stock market cycle... even the electoral cycle.
This is why financial professionals, economists and academics have missed what I’m about to show you.
They just can’t see it.
Because stock market people tend to stick to stocks.
And the real estate people stick to property.
Economists and political scientists stick to their turf.
So too do the commodity and currency experts.
No one – at least to my knowledge – has found a way to marry it all together into one Grand Cycle .
That is, until I met a remarkable man seven years ago...
I first started working with him with the view of publishing some of his work in Australia. I was living and working in Melbourne at the time.
As a courtesy he gave me the login details to the website of the small group of people he studied with.
I spent weeks reading all his old emails going back to 2001.
What I discovered was he’d forecast the economy and markets with precision for over a decade...
This was what CNN was saying in 2003, when war was raging in Iraq and the American economy was on the ropes...
But while CNN was warning of a ‘double-dip recession’...
THIS man was buying small cap stocks right at the bottom. In the next two years the FTSE AIM Index more than doubled.
Also in 2003, the British media was full of headlines warning of a looming property crash.
On February 16th, The Guardian warned readers “UK house prices face 1980s-style crash”.
On March 3rd, BBC news reported The International Monetary Fund’s warning that “the UK could be facing a dangerous house price bubble...”
On May 29,th The Economist warned: “The stock market bubble has been replaced by a property-price bubble. Sooner or later it will burst...”
THIS man said nonsense, and that UK property would boom for years to come...
In 2009, with fear still rippling through the global economy, he said unequivocally:
“The ‘great recession’, GFC, call it what you will, is just about over... Stock markets will rise.”
This gentleman appears to see things others can’t
You could call it a second-sight, or sixth sense, or some extra-sensory understanding of markets... but you’d be wrong.
There’s nothing supernatural going on here. Just a profound understanding that HISTORY REPEATS.
But this is not about a run of good market calls over the last 15 years.
What follows is about what happens next
The aim is to show you that by understanding this Grand Cycle... you can ‘remember the future’.
And if you can do that, you can predict what all kinds of different markets are going to do years in advance... pinpointing rallies and corrections, crashes and booms... often down to specific dates.
Now I know that might sound crazy or unrealistic.
And you know what:
If I were talking about specific returns in the stock market based on previous results, it WOULD be unrealistic.
In terms of your individual investment results, the past doesn’t guarantee your future.
That’s why you always see that warning, ‘past performance does not guarantee future results.’
You can’t take the stock selections from a certain person over a period of time and use those to accurately forecast what YOU can make in the stock market.
That’s not what we’re talking about here at all.
This is a very different use of the past.
Specifically: it’s the idea that the past itself repeats in a Grand Cycle.
If you can get your head around this idea, it almost renders stock selection redundant.
It’s not the performance of individual stock portfolios you’re trying to imitate.
Instead you’re using the cycles of the past to make the right investment calls in the future.
One man is doing this right now.
More importantly, he’s going to share his map for the markets for the next 10 years with British stock and property investors.
This map is called The Current Cycle Explained: Where We Are Now and What Happens Next.
We’ll get to it a little later. But before we get to this extraordinary guy, I’ll introduce myself.
I’m Dan Denning. I’m Publisher of MoneyWeek magazine and Southbank Investment Research..
And I should say right away: what you’re about to dive into here is as out there on the ‘alternative’ scale as you can get.
If what you’re about to see is correct, you won’t just have a substantial investment advantage for the rest of your life.
It will fundamentally alter the way you look at markets and human behaviour.
And it will place the increasing volatility in financial markets since last August into context.
You’ll understand why it’s happening… and what comes next.
I’ll freely admit:
There is nothing more improbable-sounding than a hidden order to the markets that only a few people can see.
But before E = mc2 there was nothing more improbable than atomic power.
Or the idea that just two tablespoons of matter could release the energy of an atom bomb.
If all this sounds just too improbable for you... or too scientific, or too pretentious... this is your chance to jump off now.
If, like many of our readers, you know some of the most valuable insights in life come from way out on the fringe...then I’d like you to meet someone...
Sci-fi author Arthur C. Clarke once wrote:
“If by some miracle, a prophet could describe the future exactly as it was going to take place...
...his predictions would sound so far-fetched, so absurd, that everyone would laugh him to scorn.”
That was certainly the case when MoneyWeek first published a forecast by Phillip J. Anderson back in October 2008.
Anderson predicted the housing market would fall until 2011... then stocks would lead a huge recovery.
Both things happened.
He predicted — and still believes — that the UK property boom has around 10 years to run. That the current cycle won’t peak until 2025—although a ‘mid cycle slowdown’ looms in 2017.
This view—that NOW is the time to buy UK property—is completely at odds with what you’ll read in the British media right now.
But those who have been bearish on property since 2011 have been wrong. And Anderson has been right.
The UK property market hasn’t crashed. Quite the opposite. House prices are still going up.
In fact, the housing market is raging. It’s up 8.4% over the 12 months to July 2016, according to Halifax. The Office for National Statistics reports the average UK house price is up by £16,000 year on year.
Anderson’s prediction of a still-booming housing market extends towards 2025.
It’s early days yet. There still plenty of time for him to be wrong.
But so far, Anderson is right. And his detractors are eating humble pie.
And not for the first time...
By mid-2003 America had been in the economic doldrums for two years and was fighting two wars.
CNN warned of a ‘double-dip’ recession saying:
“Increasingly, it looks like the plunge has already begun.”
“There's nothing out there that's going to lead the recovery,” said Brown Brothers Harriman portfolio manager Richard Koss at the time.
But 18 = 14 + 4 told Phillip J. Anderson something VERY different...
In August 2003 he went on record with this forecast:
“Be Bullish Amidst This US Downturn Gloom”
Anderson issued the following prediction, which would have seemed crazy at the time.
“US central bankers, well one of them anyway, a certain Ben Bernanke, saying last week "we should be willing to cut the funds rate to zero, should that prove necessary to provide the required support to the economy”...
“NEVER BEFORE IN THE HISTORY OF THE UNIVERSE HAVE ASSET PRICES DEFLATED WHILST THIS IS HAPPENING.
“There are stacks of good value stocks...”
Now... if you’d listened to 99% of the world’s financial press and sat on your hands, you’d have missed an incredible opportunity to make money.
If you’d listened to Phillip J. Anderson and bought stocks in 2003 you could have grown your wealth by a considerable margin.
The FTSE 100 Index went on to rise 105% from March 2003 to its peak in June 2007.
And this is EXACTLY why you need to keep reading.
The markets have the media just as flummoxed now as they were in 2003. Mainstream economists really have no clue what’s going to happen.
“The Central Bank Boom is Creating Huge Risks for Investors!” warns Seeking Alpha.
Just like 2003, they’re ignoring the Cycle.
And, according to Anderson, getting it all wrong.
If you really want to know what’s likely going to happen in the markets throughout this year and into 2017, you should read the rest of this report carefully.
Consider the information that follows your personal ‘market GPS’ for the next two years
Directing you into and out of the right assets and sectors... getting you into up moves and out of down moves before they start... and at the very same time the mainstream is telling you to do the opposite.
Here’s another example of how powerful this foresight can be...
“The UK could be facing a dangerous house price bubble... ” was the headline of a BBC news article on March 3rd 2003.
At the time this may have seemed like a sensible prediction...
Between July 2000 and July 2003 the median UK house price rose from £80,935 to £129,761.
A 60% rise in just three years.
Pretty much every ‘expert’ believed a correction was coming.
But thanks to The Grand Cycle, Anderson could see the exact opposite was true. He wrote in January 2003:
“In 2005 you can expect less money flow into manufacturing, more into the speculative rent seeking activities.
“It is then that property will go right over the top.”
And so it did.
By July 2005 the median UK price had risen to £157,627.
Then prices went ‘right over the top’, just as Anderson predicted two years earlier.
By July 2007 the median price was at £184,131.
If you’d listened to people saying the boom was over in 2003, you’d have missed out on the biggest gains of the property cycle.
If you’d listened to Anderson – and invested accordingly – you’d have stayed in a market that went on to rise a further 127.5% between 2003-2007.
Anderson went on to spend the rest of the 2000s trying to warn people that a great global financial crisis was coming in 2008.
How did he know?
Because The Grand Cycle foretold it...
In 2007 he gave the following warning on his website...
“The collapse of the bank here in the UK is a really big deal. Do not underestimate the probable implications. Repercussions will go worldwide next year.
“Plan for the credit cycle to worsen. This has not hit Mr. and Mrs. Joe Average yet about the impending affects. Why?
“Because they have no understanding of historical cycles...”
Anderson wrote that right after Northern Rock became the victim of the first run on a UK bank in over a century.
Looking back, you can see Northern Rock’s collapse as one of the first signs of a global credit crisis... one that nearly brought down the whole financial system.
Few people, if any, were making such accurate predictions at the time, though...
Anderson spent most of 2006 and all of 2007 trying to warn people where we were in his Grand Cycle.
That real estate in the US and UK had reached a peak.
And that we were heading for a massive, global stock market sell-off.
“I had a very difficult time getting this view published in newspapers,’ he later told me.
“In retrospect, I know why.
“Practically all newspapers are dependent for their revenue on real estate advertising.
“They don’t want somebody coming along telling them stop buying property, that we’ve reached the top of the cycle!”
Still, he persevered.
On his website, in 2008, Anderson predicted:
“ On average, US land prices will decline 20% to 30% before it’s all over. In my view, US (and UK) property prices have only just begun their decline .”
...and, again, that proved to be the case.
The curious thing about the Anderson forecasts is this...
Every single one of them has been diametrically opposed to the mainstream media consensus.
As he has said to me several times over the years I have known him:
“Sometimes there are times where you have to see emotion in the markets, divorce yourself from that emotion... and do the opposite.”
Below you see the iconic cover of Time Magazine back in October 2008.
Panic swept the globe as banks failed and markets crashed by 30%.
Also that month, our very own MoneyWeek magazine published a very different cover story.
It was by Phillip J. Anderson.
It contained a radical prediction.
Again: the complete opposite to what newsagent shelves were stuffed with at the time.
Instead of predicting a Second Great Depression...
Phil forecasted that the US property market would bottom-out in 2010.
And then global stock markets wouldn’t just recover... they’d SURGE...
Remember, this was in late 2008.
Cast your mind back to the state of shock and fear the world was in back then.
Back then a forecast like this seemed crazy.
Phil wrote in our MoneyWeek cover story:
“The US should hit its cyclical property low at some point in 2010... (then, after that)... The US stock market will lead the way....”
Phil was the only stock market bull in the world in October 2008 getting quoted in the mainstream media. He was completely on his own.
But he was EXACTLY right.
Markets bottomed in 2010 and went on to reach an all-time high in 2013.
As Anderson told his readers in 2008:
“The current banking events ARE NOT BLACK SWAN MOMENTS. In the larger scheme of things...
“They are fully forecastable, if you know the CAUSE...
“Know the cause, you can forecast the result.’
The most valuable financial information in the world isn’t knowing what to buy.
It’s knowing when to buy
Get your timing right, and it doesn’t really matter what specific stock, property, commodity or currency you buy.
Get your timing right, and you’ll make money regardless.
The cycle does the work for you.
Imagine if you, too, could see clear as day what was coming...
- You’d know when to buy more stocks... and when to sell them...
- You’d know in advance if it’s a good time to buy a property... or to stay out of the market...
- You’d know what’s coming in the commodity markets, and therefore whether to own or sell mining stocks...
There are plenty of investment newsletters telling you ‘what’ to buy.
That’s relatively easy.
There are thousands of stocks in the world. Just pick one!
But can you think of many financial advisories that tell you WHEN to buy and when to sell... months in advance... narrowing that instruction down to a specific future month, or even week?
With that intriguing idea in mind, I have an important announcement...
MoneyWeek has teamed up with Anderson to launch a unique UK-based investment advisory service...
It’s called Cycles, Trends and Forecasts.
And it’s dedicated to the most important question in investing:
The WHEN question.
Building on Phil’s work, and bringing one of his key collaborators based right here in in London, it aims to help you know the timing of every major market twist and turn, well in advance.
If we do our job, this will help you vastly improve your decision-making.
And because of that, your wealth could be vastly increased.
But this is a newsletter like no other.
There will be no specific recommendations. No stock picks or hot tips or trades and certainly no portfolio.
There WILL be specific dates. As well as specific forecasts for various asset markets based on where we are in The Grand Cycle.
They’ll be sent to you, via secure email, in a monthly report.
But the primary goal is to educate you to see the markets in an entirely different way.
Every month, backed by years of experience in studying cycles, you’ll be shown exactly where we are in The Grand Cycle:
Showing you what news is really news, and what that means for your investment strategy.
I’ve arranged a 30-day trial period for you to test-run Cycles, Trends and Forecasts without committing to a full subscription.
That way you can see exactly what its readers and the supporters of Phil’s work are raving about.
James Medved writes:
“I’ve found you to be the ONLY person I’ve ever come across to be so frank, honest and so damn accurate with your forecasts, unlike some others…”
Michael Boni writes:
“Phil, I would like to thank you and your editing team for your email updates. They are simply brilliant. I look forward to reading them. Thanks to your insights on the real estate cycle and stock market, I am able to see the 'cat' in the news headlines.”
Darren Wilson writes:
“Can I just say that the last edition of CT&F report is one of the best I have read so far; quite simply I found it an amazing and eye opening edition, and I cannot wait for further editions to build on this one. A big congratulations on it, quite brilliant… your work is making a big difference to my learning and trading.”
Just click THIS LINK NOW to start your no-obligation trial.
If you want to know a little bit more about how this service will work – and how you can use it to make smarter investing decisions in the coming years – keep reading!
Until I teamed up with him a few years ago in Australia, Anderson had only shared his forecast with a small number of paid members on his website. One of them, P. Scicluna, writes:
“I don't think I have seen anyone who can forecast the markets like Phil Anderson...”
Here’s what some more of his followers have to say...
“Great minds pioneer, innovate and lead the way.
Phil Anderson is indeed one such rare breed.
I regard him to be world class in the field of real estate and land cycles, a true Thomas Edison in this field.
It feels almost unfair to possess the advantage which Phil so generously shares.”
“Stock market slide. Bang on cue. Amazing! Well done!”
Dom, London, Jan 28, 2014, in response to Phil’s 2013 market forecast
“Now, where's all that chest-beating I-told-you-so bravado?
Yet again you pick a top in the market, July 20th, clever boy.”
Geoff, July 24, 2007
“The information you provide empowers an investor with an enlightened advantage in every facet of his/her investment plan...
...which can only bring untold financial rewards and superior decision making.”
Sean, July 2013
But how does Phillip J. Anderson get it right when everyone else gets it so wrong?
How did he discover something so many people missed?
Anderson and a few devoted followers have made it their life’s work to uncover and study an overarching cycle in the markets... a Grand Cycle.
Phil’s quest finally ended at an equation: 18 = 14 + 4.
Most people on earth – including mainstream economists – have no idea this equation exists.
Of the tiny few who do know of its existence, fewer still know its predictive power over the markets.
So what is this Grand Cycle?
What is 18 = 14 + 4?
Alright, read closely because it’s crucial you understand this...
The 18 in the equation refers to American land prices.
And the fact they move in an 18 YEAR CYCLE .
What do American land prices have to do with what happens here in the UK?
Or with predicting economic crashes, stock market highs and lows and commodity cycles, for that matter?
We’ll get to that.
First I need to prove the 18 side of the equation.
Over the years Anderson and his small research team have dug out, dusted-off and marshalled dozens of sources on booms and busts in the markets...
...their origins, their mechanics, and their dynamics.
Some of those sources are old and ignored. Some are recent and ignored.
Anderson’s epiphany finally came when he pieced together American land sale data dating back over 200 years.
He was astonished to see that American land values move in a predictable multi-year pattern.
According to Anderson and his colleagues, this pattern has been proven right – almost to the month – since 1784.
Look at this...
Average out the distance between every peak in American land sales since 1800 and 1910.
What do you get?
What do you get after each 18-year peak?
A recession: 1818, 1836, 1854, 1872 and so on.
Anderson found every major recession in America between 1800 and 1900 occurred, on average, 18 years apart.
So that was the first epiphany.
Recessions are linked to an 18-year land cycle
This is actually a radical departure from mainstream thinking: which is that those peaks were caused by credit bubbles.
Anderson discovered that it’s all about the LAND.
Bank credit blows up and deflates in synch with this land cycle.
Not the other way around.
But again: why should you care about all this here in the UK?
That’s where the second part of the Grand Equation comes in...
So what happens inside this Cycle?
THE ANSWER IS THE SAME, EVERY TIME...
At the beginning of an 18-year cycle, land values (and thus house prices) rise for about 14 years...
Then they hit a peak.
The banks that financed the land boom via huge credit growth get into trouble.
When banks struggle, credit contracts, property falls and the stock market follows suit.
And there’s the key:
The stock market crash is effectively caused by the real estate downturn.
The real estate downturn tends to last, on average, around four years.
Then credit expansion begins again.
In the four years that follow the bottom of the stock market, new business generation leads to a recovery in stocks.
The stock market always recovers first.
The property market recovery follows...and the cycle begins anew.
14 years up, four down.
18 = 14 + 4
Now Anderson didn’t just pull this equation from thin air. He pulled it from history.
Here, take a look at this...
This is the American housing market between 1955 and 1973/‘74.
14 years of rising prices between 1955 and 1969. Four years of down prices to the ‘73/‘74 low.
Next cycle. 1977 to 1992.
You can see again, big recovery after the last cycle. 14 years up. 4 years down.
14 years up. Four down.
Now we’re up to date.
Look where we are on that chart. We’ve had our four years of falling American house prices.
We’re only at the beginning of the next 18-year cycle.
So we’re looking at booming American property AND stock prices until around 2025/‘26!
That may seem counterintuitive with all the negative coverage that markets have gotten over the last six months.
But, as you will find, much of Anderson’s work is counterintuitive to what you’ll continue to get fed by the mainstream press.
As Anderson told his readers after the sell-off last August:
“The news editors, the bears and the commentators love this sort of action. Don’t be suckered into an emotional response to events like these.”
But how is this 18-year land cycle linked to the UK?
And how is it linked to your investments here?
Be they stocks, property, bonds, commodities, precious metals or currencies?
Well, this is the crucial thing to get your head around...
18 = 14 + 4 really is the key to everything
For hundreds of years economists thought that the prices of stocks, bonds, currencies...
...commercial and private real estate...
...industrial metals, precious metals, oil and coal, and even things like fine art and wine were totally separate from each other.
Anderson has discovered they are actually part of the same thing.
A Grand Cycle revolving around land prices .
This 18-year cycle, for whatever reason, appears to be universal.
All property markets, once they reach a certain level of maturity, cycle in this way.
It showed up in America first because that’s where the records were best... and where analysing them revealed the pattern.
But it’s here in Britain too .
As you will see, we appear to have a 6-8 month lag behind the States.
Once you figure out where you are in the Grand Cycle, you can make accurate predictions for almost any investable asset.
Remember what I said earlier...
Property peaks. Property crashes for four years. Stock markets crash too.
But as the cycle begins anew, the stock market always recovers first .
Again, this is not made up. It’s plain as day for all to see:
The ‘74-‘92 cycle peaked in ‘89.
Source: Ascendant Strategy and Investments
Stocks crashed 24%. Then they LED the recovery.
And what a recovery! The FTSE rose 139% before the peak in March 2000
And the last 18-year cycle? 1993 to 2011?
Remember the crash, right on time in 2007?
Remember how many people were saying it was the end of the financial world as we know it?
In the midst of crashing stock markets, Anderson went on the cover of MoneyWeek and said:
“The US should hit its cyclical property low at some point in 2010... (then, after that)... The US stock market will lead the way...”
That’s what happened...
The property peak.
Source: Ascendant Strategy and Investments
HUGE stock crash.
Source: Ascendant Strategy and Investments
Then just as Anderson said way back in 2008, stocks lead the recovery to make greater highs in 2013...
Says Anderson himself:
“This cycle has happened every single time, in exactly the same way... It's an astounding repeat; I can't understand why more people can't see this...”
Think about how you could use this knowledge in your own investing...
It’s at the bottom of the cycle where assets become available at much better prices.
Not only that, there are fewer bullish investors competing for those assets.
As you’ve already seen, some of Anderson’s most successful trades over the last 15 years were made when everyone else was fearful.
Knowing where you are in the Grand Cycle is crucial
If you’re at the bottom, that’s where the best deals are.
You can make sure you have plenty of cash on hand... and go shopping...
If you’re in the early stages, that’s where there is a lot of volatility and uncertainty.
Here you can make money by trading against mainstream consensus.
Five to six years into the Cycle, asset markets of all kinds begin to boom in unison.
This is where most of your investing should be long.
Towards the end – when everyone else is in euphoric boom-mode – YOU know it’s time to start preparing for the crash.
Anderson sold all his stocks and moved to a 100% cash position in July 2007.
That was right before the global financial crisis decimated stock portfolios...
Phil told me:
“I did a Sunday class in April of 2007. I said:
'If the Dow keeps going up and makes a significant new high around July-August, that's it; that's the peak, that's the top. I'll be going into cash.'
There are testimonials on my website of people who did the same and are now retired.”
This is why Phil has a small but devoted following who track his predictions closely...
“All I can say is that I heard Phil speak at a small gathering in a Melbourne stockbroking firm back in 2005.
I happened to take notes of what he predicted...
His prediction of a low in the US market on March 5th, 09 and a US real estate bottom in 2010 is a credit to his studies of cycles...”
Another Anderson follower, Ian, writes:
“I have saved and made many thousands of dollars from the wisdom you have passed on regarding reading the economy and understanding the cycles. I have been able to avoid and in fact profit from the GFC. Your predictions of moves in the Gold market have also proved very profitable.
Understanding the Property Cycle has enabled me to make very timely Property sales and purchases.”
The point is:
It doesn’t matter where you are in the 18-year cycle.
As long as you KNOW where you are, you can make smarter investing decisions than everyone else.
So the million-dollar question:
Where are we now in the Grand Cycle?
You’ll find the answer in a brand new Strategy Report.
It’s called ‘The Current Cycle Explained: Where We Are Now and What Happens Next’.
This Strategy Report is probably worth the entire subscription price alone.
Why? Because it will be like switching on a GPS and seeing exactly WHERE YOU ARE in the markets in 2016 and 2017.
Seemingly random events going on in the news right now will start to make sense.
You’ll see what’s in store for 2017, giving you the opportunity to make any necessary adjustments to your capital.
This isn’t subjective opinion; the markets have already told us what’s about to happen.
To read strong>‘The Current Cycle Explained: Where We Are Now and What Happens Next’, start your 30-day trial of the newly launched UK edition of Cycles, Trends and Forecasts..
To do so CLICK HERE
But chances are you have a big question at this stage:
How can some see the Cycle when others can’t?
Here’s the first thing you need to know:
Anderson didn’t come up with this breakthrough on his own. He’s had help from a key colleague here in London whom you’ll meet later.
They both built on foundations made by four men before them.
This is how progress and knowledge works...
You build on the work of people before you. That work takes you so far.
And then, if the time is right and you’re the right man for the moment, a breakthrough is reached.
A leap forward in our understanding is achieved.
Everything doesn’t change.
But our understanding of everything changes.
This is EXACTLY how Anderson discovered The Grand Cycle: by standing on the shoulders of several giants before him.
The first giant was a farm-boy from Lufkin, Texas named W.D. Gann.
Gann looked at markets and the economy differently to everyone else.
He was the first person to come up with the 18 side of the equation we’ve been talking about.
He went back over hundreds of years of market data, and discovered that there is an 18-year cycle in the economy.
He used this cycle to accurately predict the downturn of 1921.
Then the recovery out of these lows...
To the right is Gann’s Supply and Demand Letter’s forecast for 1929.
It was published on the 23rd of November 1928
Gann forecasts with precision the biggest boom of all time in 1929... then the collapse into the 1932 lows.
He used his theory of an 18-year cycle for great personal gain too.
He took his cycle theory to Wall Street and turned trading capital of $300 into $25,000 in the first three months.
W.D. Gann Source: Wikipedia
In 1909 Richard Wyckoff, editor of the Ticker and Investment Digest, a leading stock market journal of the time, spent time observing Gann. He wrote:
“I once saw him take $130, and in less than one month run it up to over $12,000.”
“He can compound money faster than any man I ever met.”
Still, Phillip J. Anderson wasn’t convinced.
An overarching 18-year cycle seemed too simple.
So he did more digging.
And discovered that there were other men who saw this same repeating cycle...
One was urban planner and economist Roy Wenzlick.
Where Gann saw an overarching cycle to the economy, Wenzlick drilled in on the property market.
He was a prolific compiler of data through his newsletter The Real Estate Analyst (published from 1932–1974).
And from that data he detected a similar cycle to Gann’s.
He used it in 1936 to forecast an end to the US depression and eventual recovery in US real estate.
Then he went on and used the cycle knowledge to forecast a huge boom beginning after 1955.
Economist Homer Hoyt was working on The Grand Cycle at the same time as Wenzlick.
But Hoyt used data from the city where he lived, Chicago. What did he discover?
That Chicago real estate ebbed and flowed in an almost perfect... you guessed it... 18-year cycle.
The funny thing about Hoyt is he thought it was just a Chicago phenomenon.
He didn’t think it was likely to appear in other cities.
He didn’t know there were like-minded eccentrics out there discovering exactly the same thing.
That was until, one day, THIS guy turned up at Hoyt’s door.
Fred Harrison was a British economist who discovered the exact same cycle in the UK.
He even wrote a book about it in 1983, called The Power in the Land.
Coming from the UK, he had even more data to go on.
By looking at data spanning 300 years, Harrison’s research suggested a universal cycle operating on an...
...I think you know where I’m going with this...
But here’s the thing...
Harrison made a breakthrough...
He invented the other side of the 18 = 14 + 4 equation
He discovered that, having about 14 years of stable or rising property prices, four years of recession followed.
As soon as Anderson read this book he had to come to the UK to meet Harrison.
Do you see what I mean about building on the work of those before you?
E = mc2 didn’t just pop into being out of nowhere.
Its origins can be traced back to 1632, when Galileo published the Principle of Relativity.
Then, later, Isaac Newton, James Clerk Maxwell, and Henrick Lorentz pushed the relativity principle to new ground.
Just like Einstein with E = mc2, Anderson honed and expanded previous work.
Is there a way for YOU to use this discovery, on an ongoing basis, to make smarter investing decisions?
There is now.
It’s called Cycles, Trends and Forecasts.
Until now, you’ve only been able to study ythis 18-year cycle theory on paper.
Phil’s book The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking is to 18 = 14 + 4 what Einstein’s Relativity: The Special and General Theory is to E = mc2.
People new to the Grand Cycle are often incredulous...
...because what it’s telling us is usually directly contradicted by majority opinion, emotional sentiment, and even human psychology.
That’s why we’ve decide to launch this new monthly newsletter here in the UK right now.
Regular comments on the world, via this newsletter, will be vital in helping you harnessing the power of the Cycle.
It’s a steady process of reorienting your world view to the correct ‘when’.
After many years or hours of study, this reorientation may not be necessary.
You may retrain your brain to think about the world as it really is, not as everyone else mistakenly sees it.
In fact you could say the end-goal of this new venture is that you don’t need to subscribe to the newsletter at all!
But starting out, to prevent you from making emotional mistakes – or being misled by headlines, brokers and economists – you need a guide.
The Greeks had the Oracle of Delphi. Dante had Virgil.
Now, British investors have Cycles, Trends and Forecasts.
And he couldn’t have come at a better time...
The world changes every two weeks. The market changes every day.
Prices change every .002 seconds.
Cycles, Trends and Forecasts is a monthly newsletter with a singular aim:
To be your real-time interpreter of The Grand Cycle in action
Consider it your full-spectrum, God’s-eye view of the markets.
You can begin a 30-day trial subscription by clicking here, or on the big SUBSCRIBE NOW link at the end of this report.
As I said earlier, Anderson has spent 25 years honing his Grand Cycle Theory. In recent years, he’s worked closely with a man in London who has agreed to help us launch the work here.
Phil has spent all day, every day, achieving mastery over the Cycle.
And learning how to rotate capital between markets at different points in their respective cycles.
Please understand – it’s not simply stock tips – which can be wrong.
Or market commentary – which is subjective.
It’s an entirely new way to see the markets:
Why they will move up and down at some times and not at other times...
...how to understand the outside political and economic influences... and most importantly,
How to forecast what’s coming...
Can you see why this insight could be so incredible valuable?
You will see things others can’t .
As one of Anderson’s follows, Phil Kenihan, wrote during the crash back in October 2008
&lrquo;Over the last 18 months, I've often thought of your ability to predict the future by looking in the past.
In fact, every time I've read the morning papers.
hope you're well and surviving the rocky road. Let's hope you take your own advice. I think you're a genius man!”
But if this knowledge is so valuable — and so few people know about The Grand Cycle...
WHY SHARE IT WITH YOU?
This was one of the first things I asked Anderson after I read his book several years ago:
“If you’ve discovered a universal law governing the markets, why not just keep it to yourself and get rich?
Why the public speeches, newspaper interviews and the book that anyone can buy on Amazon?”
Here’s Phil’s answer:
“Look, for as long as I can remember, I’ve had a curious bent for economics.
At 12, whilst all the other lads were busy swapping football cards or playing marbles, I was into collecting the business news. Sad, I know, but there you go.
This is the continuation of a life-long quest for powerful and useful knowledge.
Do I use that knowledge to make personal trading decisions? Course I do.
I’ve had successful trades over the years. I’ve had my losses as well.
No cycle is the same, and no predictive system is 100% perfect.
These days I place between one and two key trades a year. Once I’ve made that trade I tend to take that money out of the market, and then park it somewhere it can stay.
When I traded the coming gold top in 2009, for instance, I’ve was able to buy houses in London with the profits.
But that’s purely financial.
One of my personal goals has always been to improve/build on this knowledge.
It’s about helping people see the world as it is .
It’s stopping people getting blindsided by market events that are foreseeable.
Most economists are conditioned to blank out land prices from their analyses, so the 18-year cycle of land prices is ignored.
But land value is the key to forecasting EVERYTHING . Once you realise this, a whole new world opens up to you as an investor.
If you’d discovered something so simple and yet so powerful... wouldn’t YOU want to share it?
Besides, doing some teaching on this was the best decision I ever made.
I’ve been able to travel to some amazing destinations and meet some incredibly talented people who share my interest in markets and cycles.
Many have become life-long friends. I wouldn’t swap that for anything.”
In any case, we’re not GIVING Anderson’s guidance away, obviously.
You’re going to need to pay for it.
If you’re still with me, you’re impressed with Anderson’s track record, and intrigued about this new project.
What you’re probably wondering about right now is PRICE.
What’s it going to cost to become a first-time subscriber to Cycles, Trends and Forecasts?
Well, when I think about the potential of this kind of market guidance, I know we could charge upwards of £500 a year for access to Phil’s newsletter. Maybe even £1,000.
It would still be worth it. You could make ten times that from just one well-timed investment.
But I want as many British property and stock investors as possible to take a look at – and interrogate – the Grand Cycle.
I want to see if there’s a place for this kind of newsletter in our publishing business. And get as much useful feedback as I can from readers.
If I priced the newsletter at upwards of £500 that would rule a great many people out. And that means I’ll never learn what I need to know about this publication.
So, for a limited time, you can get a 12-month subscription to Cycles, Trends and Forecasts for just £29 (including VAT).
You read right. Arrange your trial subscription today and you’ll pay under thirty pounds to get valuable insights from the Grand Cycle for a whole year.
You’ve seen the forecasts Anderson has gone on record with.
You know what’s on the table here.
Crime scene investigators spray luminol to see latent blood traces invisible to the naked eye.
Receiving Cycles, Trends and Forecasts will be like spraying luminol on the entire financial world.
As I said: You will see things others can’t.
If £29 a year seems too high a price for you, this probably isn’t your thing anyway.
If you’re intrigued, and would like to test run Cycles, Trends and Forecasts for 30 days, simply click the SUBSCRIBE NOW link below.
Do that and your Grand Cycle Reorientation starts TODAY .
The first stage of that reorientation will be your two Strategy Reports. They are:
Strategy Report #1
The Current Cycle Explained Where We Are Now and What Happens Next
You may have heard of something called The Old Farmer’s Almanac.
It’s the longest-running publication in history.
For 216 years, The Old Farmer's Almanac has provided predictions – 18 months in advance – on everything from lightening storms to frost.
All based on historical data.
The idea is you then USE those predictions to make agricultural and horticultural decisions.
This Strategy Report is like an ‘Investor’s Almanac’ for the current 18-year cycle.
It’s the perfect orientation tool. As Anderson says in the introduction:
“The good news is once you understand the Cycle, you can forecast it. History, I assure you, does repeat. And if you can forecast correctly, you can make money.
Understanding this Cycle is the absolute key to becoming and staying wealthy.
Once you see it, you’ll have an incredible advantage few other investors ever see or understand.
You’ll also rarely need to worry about the barrage of conflicting data we all receive every day. This report will show you why.”
This report is the framework the newsletters will work from.
You need to read this entire report before you receive your first issue.
There’s a wildcard in the mix though...
And that’s where your next Strategy Report comes in.
Remember: no one is claiming this is an exact science.
Outside influences can muddy or disrupt the Cycle.
As Anderson says: “History never repeats exactly. It rhymes, but it never repeats exactly.”
There are wildcards. And, as you will see, there are mini-cycles within the Grand Cycle.
It’s crucial you understand these mini-cycles… and know how to trade them as well.
Especially this year.
And that’s where your second Strategy Report comes in…
Strategy Report #2
The Four Cycles to Help Investors and Traders
In case you missed it, there’s a US Presidential election this year.
As this report shows, this is one of four key mini-cycles.
In a Presidential election year, there have been just two losing stock market years since 1950. They were in 2000 and, of course, 2008.
As you’ll see in this report, there is a clear and deliberate policy of the US government pumping money into the economy during an election year. Especially the last half of the year. This is in order to lift markets and make people happy.
Democrat or Republican, it doesn’t matter.
This is exactly what happened in 2012, the last election year, where stocks saw double-digit gains.
The US market was just not going to collapse in 2012 as plenty of pundits suggested. The odds were absolutely against it. That’s why being aware of these cycles is so important. They teach you which side of the trade you should be on.
This report examines the upcoming election in more detail…as well as three other mini-cycles you can trade.
Understand how these cycles interact with each other...
...and you can make some very educated guesses on how, where and when to allocate your investment capital.
As I said earlier, this newsletter is on a different plane to most others in the UK.
You will NOT receive specific stock recommendations.
Again, the focus is not on what, but when.
Get the when right and you take the guesswork out of your investing.
Via a monthly report and weekly updates, you’ll learn…
- When to buy certain types of stocks... when to keep hold of them... and when to sell them. If you usually get your investment ideas from the mainstream media, this will seem alien at first. Investing against the crowd is a lonely hobby. But if you do it successfully &ddash; as Phil Anderson has shown time after time &ddash; you may find yourself all alone in making the right stock market call...
- What’s REALLY happening in the UK property market right now – will the market really boom for another TEN YEARS? Everyone was telling you a housing crash was on the cards back in 2003. The market went up for another four years. They’re saying the same now. Yet the Grand Cycle suggests the current boom has another ten years to go. If you’re thinking of buying, selling, upgrading, building or investing in the next few years you owe it to yourself to investigate this idea further. The fact is, Brits who have bought property close to the beginning of a housing boom have made a lot of money. And those who bought at the top of the market have spent years in negative equity. Which investor would you rather be?
- How to use charts to make short term trades inside the Cycle. As you’ll see, the predictive power of charts is amplified by knowledge of the Grand Cycle. In each issue, Phil will dissect a chart...and show you what it’s REALLY saying about an asset – be it stocks, property, bonds or precious metals.
- How to interpret breaking financial news through the lens of the Cycle. As I keep saying, the Cycle runs counter to what most investors are ‘feeling’. This can be hard to get your head around. Part of each alert will focus on what’s really news that week, and what’s just smoke and mirrors.
Is all this an exact science?
No, it isn’t. No predictive system is 100% perfect, and even Phil has made some losses.
The cycle peak of 1911, for instance, was strangely muted.
The 1926 peak came a little early.
The Second World War understandably disturbed the cycle.
But it picks right up again after the Korean War, from the bottom in 1955.
As Anderson says:
“No two cycles can be completely the same. Because new things happen.
We get new technology. We get new events happening.
‘Black Swan’ events like 9/11: things people have never really seen before.
But what I urge you to come to grips with this: the underlying structure below it all that is precisely the same.”
Anderson likens The Grand Cycle to the seasons each year.
You don’t know how hot or how cold next summer will be.
But you know that summer is coming...
Think about that.
That’s incredibly valuable intel to receive once a month
For stock markets, property, commodities, and even the whole lurch of history.. .it’s giving you a specific kind of advantage.
What you do with that advantage? Well, that’s up to you...
The trial offer means you pay up front.
I hope you’ll agree; £29 is not a lot to pay for something that can help you time all your major investment decisions—buy AND sell – in the stock AND property market.
Especially when you remember you can get all of your subscription money back at any time in the first 30 days if you decide it’s not right for you.
I’m not going to waste more time showing you what incredible value that is compared to other newsletters out there.
You’ve seen the calls Anderson has made.
The value should be self-evident.
Here is exactly what this subscription entitles you to:
- ONE ISSUE of Cycles, Trends and Forecasts EVERY MONTH
Anderson’s book and writings until now have been the original, static, source documents for his ideas. But they only show how the theory of a Grand Cycle works.
This monthly newsletter is the translation of this theory into the real world. The aim is simple: to help you put the Grand Cycle into practise in your own portfolio.
- YOUR TWO STRATEGY REPORTS
- THE CURRENT CYCLE EXPLAINED: WHERE WE ARE NOW AND WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
- THE FOUR CYCLES TO HELP INVESTORS AND TRADERS
And don’t forget: your subscription also comes with:
- A 100% MONEY-BACK SATISFACTION GUARANTEE
If you're not completely happy with Cycles, Trends and Forecasts, contact me within 30 days from today and you'll get a full refund of your subscription fee.
No questions asked.
If you choose to stay on, your service will continue every year until you tell me otherwise...
So now it’s your call...
Do you invest with The Grand Cycle... or against it?
You’ve patiently sat through all the evidence.
Phil and his UK-based research colleagues have foundthat the cycle in land values has a direct correlation with the stock market.
Their works seems to be prove – over and over and over again, with every forecast...
That ALL cycles in the financial markets are governed by the movement in land prices.
Not only does this ‘Grand Cycle’ explain the movement in asset prices...
...Anderson believes it predicts them.
I’m going to put it right on the line and say it: Cycles, Trends and Forecasts is brand new in the UK – But it has the potential to go down as one of the greatest financial newsletters of all time.
A pretty brash statement, I know.
But with its launch, Phil and I are aiming for nothing less.
It’s exciting stuff. To join, click the SUBSCRIBE NOW link below.
Executive Publisher, Southbank Investment Research
Cycles, Trends and Forecasts is for general information only and is not intended to be relied upon by individual readers in making (or not making) specific investment decisions. Appropriate independent advice should be obtained before making any such decision.
Cycles, Trends and Forecasts is an unregulated product published by Southbank Investment Research Ltd. Registered office: 2nd Floor, Crowne House, 56-58 Southwark Street, London, SE1 1UN. Customer Services: 0207 633 3614. Registered in England and Wales No 9539630. VAT No GB629 7287 94.
© 2017 Southbank Investment Research Ltd.