Could you recover from an 80% hit to your wealth?
Most people couldn’t. It takes years to recover from that sort of loss.
Whatever you’re investing for – whether it’s your retirement, to buy a house, to pay for your children’s education – losing that much money is simply not an option.
Well, it’s the harsh reality for some people.
While February’s sell-off saw 10% wiped off the value of the Dow Jones...
The LJM Preservation and Growth Fund lost 80% of its value.
“Preservation and Growth”!
Their investors thought they were investing their savings in a “low risk” strategy.
They will not be bailed out by the government. That money is gone for good.
And here’s the thing: this wasn’t even a full scale crash… it was just a correction...
And I have no doubt that the biggest losses are yet to come.
So if you have a significant amount of your wealth in the FTSE, I am urging you to reduce it immediately.
My worry is that most private investors will see that the FTSE 100 is going back up again and think that now is a good time the invest – to “buy the dip”, as the saying goes.
As I’ll explain in this letter, that could be one of the riskiest things you could do with your money right now.
This temporary pullback has done nothing to make the FTSE safer.
In fact, I believe the risk to investors has gone UP.
I manage over £100 million in client capital, and I openly declare that only a very small proportion of that money is exposed to US and British stocks.
I’ll show you how I am suggesting you should keep your money growing shortly.
First, it’s imperative you understand why the stock market has just become a whole lot riskier for your money…
Fear is back
The stock market had been on a historically steady rise since 2009, prior to February’s sell-off.
The FTSE 100 more than doubled...
The S&P 500 almost quadrupled.
The Volatility Index (VIX) – which indicates whether investors believe stocks are heading up or down – broke new ground in optimism.
Before February’s sell-off, investors had seemingly forgotten prices could go down.
The VIX – known colloquially as the ‘fear index’ – went to record lows as the S&P 500 rose throughout 2017:
The lowest the VIX had ever reached before the financial crisis was 9.89, in January 2007.
In July 2017, the VIX went UNDER 9 for the first time ever.
On 3rd January 2018, it did so again.
Investors had never been so sure the stock market would keep rising...
They were wrong.
Increased volatility is going to cost investors trillions of pounds
Here’s the thing...
When the big players – banks, pension funds etc. – invest their clients’ money, volatility is a critical factor in picking the right investments.
A pensioner, for example, doesn’t want to see their wealth swing up and down by +/-20%.
They can’t afford to take on unnecessary risk – they just want a steady rise.
That’s why institutional investors are required to have the bulk of their portfolios in low-volatility assets...
And they use past volatility to assess how “safe” an investment is.
Here's the problem...
Due in large part to the regular supply of printed money (quantitative easing) central banks have injected into the stock market since 2009, the bull market had been incredibly smooth.
I.e. volatility has been LOW, as you can see on this chart of the S&P 500:
Source: Google Finance
After all, why would you sell your stake in a market you knew the central bank was propping up?
Central bank money printing (Quantitative Easing) has sent markets into a self-perpetuating cycle, driving them up and up and up.
The S&P 500 even completed a record-breaking stretch of more than 400 DAYS without a drop of more than 5% – the longest streak since the 1950s...
Volatility had never been lower.
The normal price fluctuations you’d expect to see had been suppressed.
Investors had never been so optimistic...
But on February 5th, when the Dow Jones fell by over 1,000 points…
The critical lesson from the
global stock sell-off
The bull market has essentially been a years-long trap for investors.
But February’s correction has called time on the unprecedented low levels of volatility.
The game is now up – and that could have huge consequences for your money.
This is why...
The big institutional investors who dominate the market will now have to factor in February’s HIGH volatility into their risk calculations...
Which could reveal their portfolios to be nowhere near as safe as they thought they were...
Meaning they will have to UNWIND their riskier positions to ensure their clients’ money is safe.
Can you see the problem with this?
Huge financial institutions realise simultaneously that their portfolios are too RISKY for their clients...
Meaning they have to SELL some of their positions to make them safer.
If they all do this at once...
You’ll see a glut of stocks hit the market in one go.
That’s all the ingredients necessary for a stock market crash, right there.
In my view it’s not hard to see the sell-off destroying more wealth than we saw in 2008 – when this exact same mistake was made, prompting the FTSE 100 to fall 50%.
But due to almost a decade of Quantitative Easing since 2008 – the European Central Bank is still pumping 60 billion euros a month in the markets – this problem will be dramatically bigger now.
It’s a recipe for chaos – which is why, if you have ANY money in western stock markets, I’m advising you to take steps to protect yourself immediately.
As Andre Bakhos, managing director of New Vines Capital, said to Reuters in response to the February correction [emphasis mine]:
“The one thing I could say with confidence is that volatility has suddenly come back into the market.
“The volatility has caused investors to be fast on their feet. It is a true traders’ atmosphere as opposed to the conditions we have been accustomed to - buy and go higher.”
When stock markets tanked last time, central banks revved up the printing presses, pouring liquidity in the financial system.
The economy is doing too well and inflation is too high already.
I think they'll have to watch the financial markets going haywire as this “great unravelling” takes hold.
The next move you make is critical.
Get it wrong, and I believe you could lose well OVER 50% of your money.
February's sell-off is going to split investors into two camps:
- Those who believe it was a momentary “blip” and that the bull market will continue as it was beforehand...
- Those who understand that volatility is back... who understand that investors have been lulled into a false sense of security for almost a decade... and the threat a GREAT UNRAVELLING poses to your money.
My message to you today is simple... but critical: make sure you’re in the second camp
I’m offering you an escape route
As you know, stock market crashes can cost people dearly.
Years of hard work and saving goes up in smoke.
In 2008, every British household was down by an average of £31,000 according to data from Halifax.
Could your family overcome a loss that large today?
It’s not just money that’s involved, either. Jobs go too... people lose their homes... the emotional costs can be devastating.
That’s not a chance you have to take.
Today I’m going to show you how I believe you can give your wealth the best chance of overcoming the evident problems in the stock market.
My name is Tim Price.
You may have come across my writing in MoneyWeek or The Spectator.
But my main business is protecting and growing wealth. My fund management business currently has over £100 million under management.
My understanding of the financial system has been forged over the best part of three decades. I like to think I’m well attuned to both the dangers and the opportunities the market offers.
In 2008, when the FTSE 100 dropped from over 6,900 to 3,500, my clients’ wealth held firm.
I’ve won awards for my performance as a fund manager. In 2005 I was awarded the Defensive Investor of the Year, and I’ve been nominated a further five times in the same awards programme.
So make no mistake: this is NOT a message telling you to keep all your money in the bank.
Right now there ARE markets where I believe your family’s money will be safer.
They just aren’t in the usual places.
Most investors won’t even consider them.
I can’t be sure the next crash will play out exactly as I expect – I don’t have a crystal ball. As with any investment strategy, I can’t guarantee 100% protection.
But they are where my analysis has led me to invest my clients’ money.
I’m happy to disclose that information here. I would never tell you to invest in anything I wouldn’t myself.
Today I’m offering you the chance to follow suit.
URGENT RESEARCH REPORT #1
My latest report details exactly how I think you should set your wealth up to survive – and prosper – regardless of the precarious situation in stock markets here and in the US.
It tells you exactly which investments to buy... and what percentage of your money to allocate to each one.
I would usually charge thousands of pounds for this kind of information.
But today, I’m offering a way you can get a copy of this report for FREE.
But let me first re-emphasise: what’s important is that you get this up and running immediately.
Because it doesn’t matter if you act a month or a minute before the market reverses.
You do not want to be scrambling around trying to salvage your hard-earned cash when everyone else is selling. You’ll almost certainly lose money.
February’s sell-off showed how quickly markets turn downwards.
But that was just a correction – a 10% fall is NOT a crash.
So the sooner you act, the better – it really is that simple.
Now, no investment is 100% risk free – there’s no guarantee that all your money will be protected in the event of a crash.
But I believe the signs suggest it won’t be long until this bull market comes to a definitive end.
Now, I’ve shown you why the losses could be devastating – and potentially much greater than 2008.
But before I show you how you can look at my ‘Fail Safe Portfolio’...
I’m going to run through the reasons why I think the next stock market crash could happen at any moment...
CRASH INDICATOR #1
The Third Crossing
There’s one measurement I prize above all others in assessing the stock market...
And right now it’s flashing red.
The CAPE ratio shows you how over- or undervalued a stock is – by dividing the share price by the earnings per share (averaged out over 10 years).
The chart below shows the CAPE ratio for the whole S&P 500 stock index over the past century.
Now, the CAPE average for this period is 16.8 (i.e. you would make your money back in 16.8 years)...
As you can see, it now stands at well OVER 30.
As I said earlier, this is only the third time in history that this mark has been crossed.
The first time was the Wall Street Crash of 1929...
The second was the dotcom bubble in 2000.
Both events had a devastating impact on investors.
At some point, the market will revert to its average figure, of 16.8 – and presumably below it.
By this measure, the US stock market is now roughly 80% overvalued.
And that’s just if it falls back to its average, remember – it could obviously drop well below that figure in a crash.
That’s more than just a red flag, as far as I’m concerned. It’s telling me the bull market is primed to pop. And when it goes BANG, your money should already be well clear.
Robert Schiller, the economist who came up with the CAPE ratio, wrote on 21st September 2017, “the US stock market today looks a lot like it did at the peaks before most of the country’s 13 previous bear markets.”
In case you’re wondering why you should care what happens in the US stock market…
The US accounts for approximately 60% of the world MSCI Index. So wherever stocks in the US go, Britain is almost certain to follow – as the chart below demonstrates.
You can see that when America suffers, Britain does too...
The Great Crash of 1929 laid waste to US stocks – the impact was felt here too as UK stocks were down almost 50%.
In 2008 we suffered similar losses as the US subprime market collapsed.
So the fact that US stocks are valued higher than they were in 1929 – and second only to the dotcom crash in 2001 – is reason alone to get your money out of the western stock markets immediately, to my mind.
But the CAPE ratio is far from the only indicator suggesting this bull market is racing towards its end...
CRASH INDICATOR #2
The “FAANGs” are distorting the market
Just because “the stock market” is going up, that doesn’t mean every company is.
The market is being held up by a handful of tech stocks – those known colloquially as the “FAANGs” (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google).
The size of these companies means that they have a disproportionate effect on the wider market.
Many now trade at astonishingly high valuations.
Amazon’s price-to-earnings ratio for 2017 – the last full year of data – was 294.1.
Last year, Netflix’s p/e ratio was over 190.
“Dotcom bubble 2.0”?
You bet it is.
You would have to be insane, in my opinion, to have any money in these companies. And that’s just what we are seeing, investing insanity as the market piles into companies offering no value whatsoever.
As I said, tech companies are the biggest in the stock market – and have enjoyed huge gains since 2009.
But other sectors have not been so lucky. The chart below shows how the FAANGS managed to keep the S&P 500 stable between March and May on their own.
Source: John Alexander/macrocharting.com
The rest of the market – 495 companies! – dropped 260 billion in those two months, which the FAANGs matched in gains.
Low market breadth does not guarantee a crash. But it has historically been strongly correlated to reversals.
If more and more companies are sinking in price, the market is depending on fewer companies to keep it growing.
That worries me. If their fortunes turn, the rest of the market does not look capable of taking up the slack... and a falling stock market would accelerate quickly.
CRASH INDICATOR #3
“The blind leading the blind”
Why would you buy a stock?
One: Because you think it’s a good company...
Two: Because the price is going up?
For an increasing portion of the market, the answer is number two... and it’s going to end badly.
Allow me to explain.
An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is a way of investing in a whole market – regardless of whether the companies in the index are good or bad.
ETFs (‘passive’ investing) have SOARED in this bull market – as the following chart shows.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
As you can see, in 2009, less than 20% of the stock market was owned by ETF investors...
Today it’s almost 40%.
Lazy speculators hear “the FTSE was up 2% at the close of trading” on the news and think: “Sounds good to me, I’ll just buy the whole market.”
That becomes a self-perpetuating circle.
Buyers beget buyers... driving prices higher and higher...
Until they run out.
Right now, the rising stock market is a case of the blind leading the blind.
I promise you it won’t end well.
The end of bull markets are characterised by greed and stupidity.
I’m seeing both in abundance at the moment.
Whether it’s investors pumping money into exchange traded funds (ETFs) simply because the market’s going up...
Or buying stocks in tech companies where you’ll have to wait 294.1 YEARS to make your money back...
Or the record levels of money investors have borrowed to buy stocks – which they’ll somehow have to pay back in the event of a downturn...
All the signs suggest it won’t be long until this bull market runs its course.
And as I’ve shown you, underpinning this entire bull run is the fact that record low volatility is misleading investors on what a “low-risk” investment actually is.
Institutional investors are caught in a trap.
They will need to sell some of their positions to make their portfolios less risky.
If they ALL start doing this... then you have the recipe for a reversal even bigger than we saw in 2008.
Having seen it laid out for you today, you now know what is really going on. But that’s not enough on its own. Information is pointless if you don’t have the ideas and direction you need to act on it.
So I’m talking to you as an investor... as someone who now understands the severity of the situation we’re in... as someone who wants to take your and your family’s safety into your own hands.
If that isn’t you... stop reading here.
If that is you, here’s how you can get your hands on my report.
Your access to The ‘Fail Safe Portfolio’
Right now you have every right to wonder: if the stock market is so vulnerable right now — why haven't I read about this elsewhere? Why is no-one sounding a warning?
Well — did anyone warn you before Lehman Bros collapsed? Or before the US property market imploded? Or before the eurozone spiralled into chaos?
People never get warned. Or, they don’t listen when they are.
We are living in an era where people appear convinced the market can only go one way. No one is seriously talking about a crash.
At some point the buyers will run out.
According to my analysis, that will happen sooner rather than later.
From low market breadth... to the unthinking ETF buyers... to the absurd valuations on the CAPE ratio...
The signs all point to a huge reversal.
It's my job to spot these things and help people prepare for them.
Over my career, I have shown my investors that — whatever is happening in the markets — there are assets and investments that can prosper.
And I want to help you do that, too.
The Fail Safe Portfolio is a complete investing strategy, currently comprised of 11 investments.
The current weightings are:
STOCKS – 55%
BENEFIT: High quality companies trading on extremely inexpensive valuations
REAL ASSETS – 25%
BENEFIT: Protection for your wealth against central bank money printing and inflation.
‘ABSOLUTE RETURN’ FUNDS – 20%
BENEFIT: Fully diversified funds aiming to keep your wealth increasing regardless of how the wider economy and markets are doing.
It is low-maintenance, designed to give you peace of mind above all.
N.B. Until 7th February, the Fail Safe Portfolio had a 10% allocation to bonds.
But I decided to sell those holdings – and put it into a new stock investment.
As I explained to my readers on that day:
“It “feels” to me that the tide has finally turned for interest rates. I think they are going higher, which is bad news for bonds. In any event, the yields available on bonds are still so derisory that the likelihood of enjoying meaningful positive returns from here is negligible. Interest rates remain at close to their lowest levels in 5,000 years. When interest rates rise, bond prices almost inevitably fall.”
You will know you have done everything required to protect your growth from perhaps dangerously overvalued markets.
You’ll find everything you need to know in the report.
As with all investing your capital will be at risk. The Fail Safe Portfolio is designed to protect your wealth, but nothing is guaranteed. So you should only invest with money you can safely afford to lose.
With funds the performance relies on the underlying investments. Rising interest rates will be trouble for bonds.
Some shares in the portfolio may be listed in a currency other than sterling, which means the return could be negatively affected by currency movements.
I’m sorry if I’m preaching to the converted here, but I want you to go into this with full confidence. You need to understand that no investment is risk-free.
I’d like to send you a copy of the report today – free of charge when you join me today.
But that’s just the start of what I can offer you. There’s no point simply setting up a portfolio and then leaving it alone. The best opportunity to grow your money now may not be the so in 12 months’ time.
Managing your money is a never-ending process. When the situation changes... you’ll need to make changes to the portfolio... or adjust its exposure to certain asset classes.
That's why I created...
London Investment Alert
Think of the Alert as your personal financial intelligence service.
It’s my way of sharing analysis for what is going on in the financial system with private investors like you...
And showing you precisely how to keep your money safe and growing at all times.
The Fail Safe Portfolio is the cornerstone of that.
It is designed to help you to sleep easy, knowing you’ve done everything in your power to protect you and your family’s future.
That is my job in the London Investment Alert.
As an elite wealth manager I only usually share my core insights amongst a small group of people.
Unless you have £250,000 or more to invest, it's unlikely we'd ever cross paths.
But this is an extraordinary time to be investing.
Central banks are meddling in markets to an unprecedented degree. No one knows how it’ll end – but my prediction is that a lot of people are going to take a hammering.
Frankly, I don't think that's fair. And I don't want to see that happen.
I'd like to send you the London Investment Alert to help you keep your wealth moving in the right direction.
You'll have access to a level of true investment intelligence only a handful of people will ever experience.
But the first step is to grasp what is happening around you. Because I think only those who understand the precarious state of the stock market – and most importantly the corrupted nature of our financial system... are going to make it out intact.
Be one of them.
In the London Investment Alert you'll be one of the few people in Britain who know what's actually going on with your money.
I'm in an incredibly fortunate position to assist you. Not only do I operate a stone's throw away from the City of London — the epicentre of the world's financial system...
I'm also part of a global investment research network with offices in the USA, Paris, Melbourne, Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo, Mumbai and Beijing. People like me with decades of experience who believe in self-reliance, fair markets, sound money and personal liberty being preserved.
This gives us the perspective, the contacts, and the tools, to help you succeed. You'll get the benefit of this global reach. I will share their insights with you.
I’ve been actively involved in financial markets for the best part of three decades.
In that time I've made a habit of getting the big calls right and moving the hundreds of millions of pounds under my charge out of harm's way.
In early 2000s I bought gold for my clients.
The metal was hated at the time – stocks were the only game in town. But that foresight helped ensure that I was one of the few who didn’t go down in the global financial crisis.
Two years ago I started warning UK investors about the ‘war on cash’, well before it was being discussed by the mainstream media. I even wrote a book about it, as I am fearful of its consequences for our liberty as British citizens.
Now, from Germany to India, governments across the world are speeding up their efforts to eradicate hard currency.
The point is, just because you’re not hearing about something, doesn’t mean it isn’t happening.
You won’t hear about the danger of consistently low volatility in the mainstream press.
It’s not the sort of thing they’re looking for – or probably even aware of.
After all, did anyone tell you about the proliferation of Collateralised Debt Obligations (CDOs) – which helped fuelled the US’s subprime mortgage crisis – in the run-up to 2008?
I doubt it.
But I scour the markets for weak points every single day – and my research has led me to one conclusion on this bull market.
Right now, you have some big calls to make
The FTSE is a high-risk market.
If you have money in it currently... are you willing to leave it there?
If you were thinking of putting money into it... are you still confident that’s a wise thing to do?
Get the Fail Safe Portfolio set up today.
All you need to do to set it up today is take out a trial to London Investment Alert. I’ll send you a copy of my report, detailing the portfolio in full, immediately.
Then, you’ll have 30 days to decide whether my ongoing guidance in London Investment Alert is for you.
If you decide it isn’t, you can cancel at any point in the first 30 days and receive a full refund – no questions asked.
(You’ll be able to keep your report on the Fail Safe Portfolio if you decide to cancel your subscription.)
To see what you’ll get when you start your trial to London Investment Alert – and secure a 50% SAVING – click here...
If you’re still unsure over the danger in the FTSE right now, there’s another feature of this bull market that you should be aware of.
As the economist Dr Hyman Minsky noted, the longer an economy grows... the more risk investors are prepared to take on... the bigger the losses.
Well, it’s happening all over again.
CRASH INDICATOR #4
This indicator is at a record level
Would you borrow money to buy stocks?
But that’s what an ever-increasing part of the market is doing.
Great news if stocks go up...
A potential disaster if they go down.
Because that £50,000 you borrowed to invest is now worth considerably less...
This is known as ‘margin debt’.
And in July last year, margin debt hit a record $549.86 billion.
This accounts for 2.86% of US GDP.
As Howard Ma, the Chief Investment Officer at Meritocracy Capital Partners, said recently, the 2% threshold is when “bubbles became evident despite widespread denial”.
Margin debt has now been above 2% for the last 56 months, as the following chart shows...
Source: Meritocracy Capital Partners Inc.
As you can see, the percentage of margin debt in the market is now higher than it was in the dotcom crisis and the global financial crisis.
Additionally, hedge-fund borrowing recently hit its highest level since the financial crisis.
It’s another signal that fear has turned to greed. People are borrowing ever bigger quantities to get a bigger slice of the action.
Does this mean a crash is certain? No.
But what we do know is that when the margin debt level has been at this level before, that’s been the end result.
Here’s Howard Ma’s conclusion [emphasis mine]:
"It is crystal-clear to me the stock market is in another financially leveraged bubble,” he wrote. “This one is unprecedented. It has extreme depth (2.86% of GDP) and immense breadth (56 consecutive months). If financial leverage [margin debt] is indeed the correct way of gauging the potential harm from the prospective aftermath…then this bubble could prove to be the biggest one ever.”
In my opinion, he’s bang on.
Are you going to ignore this threat?
British investors are in danger.
If you have a family that depends on you, or you simply can’t afford to see your wealth take a substantial hit...
You need to have your money in low-risk investments, to my mind.
That does not mean accepting minimal growth.
It simply means not paying for things which are significantly overvalued.
I.e. not in western stock markets.
I believe my Fail Safe Portfolio is your best defence against the threats in the financial system.
As I said, you’ll find everything you need to know in the report. But I’d also like to send you something else...
URGENT RESEARCH REPORT #2: “Britain’s ticking debt timebomb – the fuse has been lit”
In this report, you will discover that austerity was a sham. Politicians continue to push the issue of our debt and how it is to be dealt with into the future. Like debt itself, they are borrowing from the future to enjoy today, deluding themselves that they can borrow their way to prosperity.
As a response to this delusion, I reveal the “hidden bull market” tucked away in the gold sector.
All you need to do to get both of these research reports today is subscribe to London Investment Alert.
I’ll also send you a FREE digital copy of my book, The War on Cash.
This is my explanation of what’s truly going on in our warped financial system...
The response to the global financial crisis has merely created the conditions for an even bigger crash, to my mind. The result of these perverse policies is going to have consequences far beyond the financial. Your liberty as a British citizen is under threat – and the war on cash is the next stage in the struggle. Most people won’t see it coming. It’ll be too late by the time they realise what’s happened to their money. Today, you have the chance to stay a step ahead.
Reviews of the book from regular readers have been overwhelmingly positive:
“A must read to REALLY understand what a calamitous situation we are living in – growing worse by the day and intensifying exponentially. IT’S A WAKE UP CALL – and NOT TO BE IGNORED! Failing to prepare is PREPARING TO FAIL!” HR TAYLOR
“We have Orwellian government spying on its own citizens’ communications, grossly dishonest overly easy money, and a gigantic, Leviathan state. A cashless society is just the final step to ensure that you cannot be truly be free, because your financial choices are tightly controlled”. RG
“Don’t trust or rely on the government but take action yourself to prepare for financial Armageddon.” P. SKINNER
“The War on Cash is the book to read if you want to understand exactly what is going on with your money and what you can do about. It’s also a must if you value not only your money but your freedom as well.” P. PITTARIS
“Fore-warned is fore-armed. Take evasive action while you’re still allowed to”. ‘The War on Cash’ reader BVD EEMS
The book is yours, with my compliments, the moment you start your no-obligation 30-day trial to London Investment Alert.
What will this research cost you?
Normally, access to this level of commentary and insight would set you back a lot of money.
But I don't want there to be ANY barrier between you and the kind of insight you need to stay ahead of the coming crisis.
I want to make London Investment Alert available to as many people in this country as I can...
With no barrier to them getting all this important information and insight.
I foresee a time – perhaps soon – when thousands of well-intentioned investors are going to need help. Without guidance, they will make a lot of mistakes. They will be defenceless. I believe I can help them – and you.
So, you won't need the £250k you’d usually need to get elite wealth advice from the best minds in the business.
You won't need the £1,000 I ask for members of some of our exclusive investment advisory services.
I'm opening up the experience, knowledge and the collective wisdom of the London Investment Alert team for a tiny fraction of that price.
The full price is £90 for a year’s subscription. Considering the level of investment intelligence you get – that’s incredible value.
But that’s not what you will pay if you take up a trial today. I believe Britain’s major investment markets are now so risky… and so many people are likely to get caught out… I want to open this guidance up to as many as possible.
That’s why I’m cutting the price in half to just £45 for your first year.
For that modest price you'll receive an exclusive alert every other week, shining a light on the market's lurking dangers...
Plus my two reports – ‘The Fail Safe Plan’ and ‘Britain’s Ticking Debt Timebomb’ and book, The War on Cash.
You have 30 DAYS to see if it's for you.
In that time, if you don't think our investment intelligence advisory is for you, just let me know. I will refund your subscription fee in full. No problem.
I’d advise you to do so asap – even if you decide my market analysis and guidance isn’t worth the money.
At least you’ll have taken the necessary action – and come to your own conclusion.
(You can review your trial offer before it's final)
Before I let you get on with the rest of your day, there’s one more thing I want to bring to your attention – which has been a critical agent behind this current bull market...
And which could precipitate the next correction.
CRASH INDICATOR #5
Is this “market maker” finally pulling out?
You might think that the rising stock market means that institutional and private investors are driving up prices.
But that’s far from the whole story.
In the last eight years, companies have spent $2.4 trillion buying their OWN stock.
To put that into perspective, the UK’s national debt is around $2.4 trillion.
It’s a way of engineering the share price to make the demand seem stronger.
But the market can’t be rigged for ever.
And right now, the trend is waning – as the chart blow shows.
For the 12-month period ending March 2017, stock buybacks were $508.1 billion, down 13.8% from $589.4 billion for the previous 12-month period.
You get the picture: stock buybacks, a huge crutch for stocks during this bull market, are diminishing.
Can the market rely on a resurgence of new buyers to take it further?
That feels like a leap of faith to me – one I’m not prepared to risk.
Stock market investors are playing a risky game right now.
The tragedy is, I suspect most private investors haven’t got the faintest idea of what’s actually going on...
But YOU do.
The cost of doing nothing
Could I face losing a large portion of my money, at this stage of my life?
Could I happily retire, knowing I won't be able to live the way I have always dreamed... knowing I cannot leave my kids with as much as I hoped?
Could I forgive myself if I did nothing to protect my investments and family, even after this serious warning?
It might not happen. There’s no guarantee that this event will play out like I expect. Indicators are not guaranteed to predict the future.
However, today you have an opportunity to take steps to prepare yourself in case I’m right. Don't waste it. It will cost you next to nothing to see what we believe you need to do urgently.
And it will cost you very little to continue to receive my advice as things play out. Don't let yourself become one of the thousands of people here in the UK looking back with regret, wondering ' what if I'd listened... what if I'd done something...'
I am offering to show you how to respond right now... I urge you to take me up on it.
Investment Director, London Investment Alert
(You can review your trial offer before it's final)
P.S. Stocks are not the only asset you need to be wary of right now...
I’m just as concerned by another asset – one that’s twice the size of the stock market...
And which will affect almost ALL UK citizens...
The bond bubble
Interest rates on the money our government borrows have been falling for 30 years, as you can see on this chart…
In 1982 Margaret Thatcher’s government had to pay 15% to borrow money for three years. Anyone with money – be it a rich country or a pension fund – could invest in the bonds, and receive 15% interest in return.
But over time the government’s borrowing costs have fallen – dramatically. Now, the government only has to pay 1.2% to borrow money over the same period. That’s 12 times cheaper than in 1982.
Debt has been getting cheaper for three decades.
The government has simply borrowed more to pay off its existing debts.
Bond manager Bill Gross famously referred to the UK government bond market as “resting on a bed of nitroglycerine”. That was in 2010! Since then interest rates have halved.
Bond investors are now getting screwed by inflation.
Ten-year gilts currently yield 1.5%.
With inflation officially now at 3%, gilt investors are now locking in a real return of MINUS 1.5%.
But the single biggest reason to shun UK bonds is that the interest rate cycle is turning.
The UK government raised the base rate for the first time in over a decade on 2nd November.
The US Federal Reserve has already raised short-term rates, and is expected to do so again for the third time this year in December.
And when interest rates rise, bond prices fall.
The government bond markets of the world are now uninvestible, in my view. They have risk aplenty, but precious little by way of return.
Do you have a lot of them in your own portfolio, or pension fund?
If so, why?
On 7th February 2018, I sold the bond holdings in the Fail Safe Portfolio.
The Fail Safe Portfolio aims to build your wealth steadily without incurring unnecessary risk.
That means NOT owning investments which are lagging behind inflation – i.e. effectively losing you money – which is precisely what UK government bonds are currently doing.
To find out which specific investments it contains – and to see how your money could benefit from my ongoing guidance – simply take out a 30-day trial to my investment newsletter London Investment Alert...